Zero Population Growth

20 May 2012

The E-Party zero population policy consists of recognition of the following:

  1. The planet can only support a finite number of humans.
  2. Empirical evidence for zero population growth exists in the population growth statistics for industrialized nations.  All developed nations currently exhibit population growth rates of about unity; ie no growth.
  3. Immigration is our main means of population growth
  4. Population growth is no longer a necessary ingredient for economic growth.
    1. Increasing use of computers, machines and robotics means that fewer people are required to carry out complex tasks
    2. Developed nations can outsource work to developing nations rather than use their native population


Last edited 25-Aug-2007 12:29 PM    Created 18-Aug-2007 09:01 PM

Finite resources

20 May 2012

The planet can only support a finite population, and the resources required to support developed nations far outweigh those required to support undeveloped nations. As India and China industrialize the impact on the environment of a growing middle class of several hundred million with cars, televisions, cell phones and many of the trappings of western life is hard to predict. Demand from those nations for resources will push up prices globally as has already happened for oil, further hammering home the 'finity' of those resources.

In NZ we experience occasional problems with availablility of water and electricity, and road congestion in our largest city remains unsolved.  Because of low population density and copious natural resources we do not experience the kind of shortage of resources that more population dense nations do and this insulates us from the problem to a certain extent.

At some stage the impact that increasing population has on the environment has to undermine any perception that increased population means improved economic growth.



Last edited 25-Aug-2007 01:44 PM    Created 25-Aug-2007 12:33 PM

Current Growth

20 May 2012

Population growth measured by births versus deaths has been at a standstill in most western nations. This has been driven by a variety of issues including:

  • contraception being freely available since the 1960s
  • Feminism encouraging women to have careers instead of, or including children
  • fears of the effects of overpopulation
  • cost of rearing children
Current population trends are empirical evidence that zero population growth is both possible and viable.

Last edited 25-Aug-2007 01:45 PM    Created 25-Aug-2007 12:34 PM

Immigration

20 May 2012

Immigration is the main means of population growth in most developed nations. It is increasingly becoming a hot political issue as a result of terrorism, the most pervasive influence of which is likely to be a tightening of immigration requirements in all developed nations.

The US was built on immigration, but since 9/11 immigration there is the hardest it has ever been. In addition they are proposing a wall to halt the flood of Mexian emigres from across the southern border.

Europe has been rocked by terrorist attacks and fears of an "Islamic invasion", the most likely outcome of which will be a clampdown on Islamic immigrants and visitors.

While we don't share the same problems as US and Europe, we are accepting immigration from countries far bigger than ours with an inexhaustible supply of population that could easily swamp us if allowed to.

Immigration into NZ from Asia over the past decade or so has fuelled economic growth by increasing the availability of credit and driving up the value of land, enabling the development of tourism and various service and technological industries that weren't there before. It may have put more money into the system and into the pockets of many land developers and vendors, but at the same time it hasn't helped us out of our trading deficit. The immigrants tend not to use our country for establishing businesses because the most lucrative ones are the those back in their own nations. Recent prosperity in NZ has been due to established industries like Dairy whose progress has nothing to do with the results of immigration. The benefits to our economy of allowing Asian immigration into the country remain short term and elusive.

A policy of zero population growth that takes into account finite resources, current birth vs death rates and economic growth that does not need population growth should be considered without regard to all socio-political issues such as the above. In other words, religious, cultural and economic issues of immigration are irrelevant to any consideration of the policy of zero population growth. The main purpose of restricting immigration in this context would be to set an example that population growth is not needed.

Balancing Act

Restricting immigration needs to be balanced up with the need to allow freedom of movement between nations. Implementation of the policy would be accompanied by greater provision for temporary visas as a replacement for full immigration.



Last edited 25-Aug-2007 01:45 PM    Created 25-Aug-2007 12:35 PM

Economic Growth without Population Growth

20 May 2012

Robotics and Computers

Increasaing use of robotics and computers means that economic growth such as in countries like Germany and Japan is possible without the need for continual population growth. Factories are increasingly being fitted out with machines that replace the work of countless human employees. Workforces need to upskill as a result to become engineers, machine operators and computer operators requiring less of them, but having control over much greater production ability.

Instead of population growth, economic growth can go hand in hand with technological growth, through the establishment of machines that replace the number of humans to carry out a task.

Outsourcing

Industrialized nations are increasingly outsourcing to developing nations such as China, India and Brazil for cheap labour, often leaving large numbers of unemployed at home. Our close proximity to such nations make that a viable option for NZ as has recently happened with Fisher and Paykel relocating some of their operation to China. In response, our workforce needs to upskill and be able do things that the developing nations cannot do. It certainly means that increasing our population is not going to increase our productivity.



Last edited 25-Aug-2007 01:48 PM    Created 25-Aug-2007 12:44 PM

Benefits of Zero Population Growth

20 May 2012

A zero population growth strategy would have the following benefits 

  • It would enhance the standing of a nation like NZ which prides itself on its green pristine environment.  Restrictions on immigration would add a premium to tourism, which is one of our big earners.
  • It would encourage the upskilling of the nation
  • It would take the squeeze off the housing market and make homes affordable to the average New Zealander 


Last edited 30-Nov--0001 12:00 AM    Created 25-Aug-2007 01:12 PM
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